Polymarket User AnonBidenBull Loses $2 Million Following Biden’s Withdrawal from Race

A Polymarket user named AnonBidenBull lost $2 million after President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 election, causing the value of their positions to plummet.

Points

• AnonBidenBull lost $2 million in Polymarket bets following Biden’s withdrawal.
• The value of Biden-related positions crashed by 99%.
• Some traders benefited from betting on Kamala Harris’s nomination.
• Polymarket has seen increased activity amid political speculation.

As the political landscape shifted with President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection, the impact on betting markets like Polymarket was immediate. AnonBidenBull, a trader who had placed significant bets on Biden winning the 2024 nomination, the presidential election, and the popular vote, saw the value of their positions crash by 99%, resulting in a loss of $2 million.

In contrast, other traders found themselves on the winning side of the news. One trader, who had bet nearly $12,500 on Kamala Harris becoming the 2024 Democratic nominee, saw the value of their position increase by over 6,000% to nearly $769,000. Harris’s odds on Polymarket now stand at 79%, reflecting her increased likelihood of securing the nomination.

Crypto traders have flocked to Polymarket in recent weeks, driven by speculation surrounding Biden’s potential withdrawal. The site recently enlisted election statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, as an advisor, further bolstering its credibility and appeal.

This episode highlights the volatility and high stakes associated with political betting markets, where sudden announcements can lead to significant financial gains or losses. As the 2024 election approaches, traders will continue to navigate the unpredictable political landscape, seeking opportunities to capitalize on market movements.

Explanation

• Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 election caused significant losses for some Polymarket traders.
• Traders betting on Kamala Harris benefited from her increased odds of securing the Democratic nomination.
• Polymarket’s activity has surged amid political speculation, highlighting the high stakes of political betting.