With Biden Out, Polymarket Favors Harris for Democratic Presidential Nominee

Following President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 election, Polymarket prediction markets have shifted their favor towards Vice President Kamala Harris as the leading Democratic nominee.

Points

• Biden’s withdrawal shifts Polymarket odds in favor of Kamala Harris.
• Harris is now the leading contender for the Democratic nomination.
• Biden’s endorsement of Harris bolsters her position.
• Market reaction includes a significant drop in Biden-linked tokens and a rise in Harris-linked tokens.

President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race has reshaped the political landscape, particularly in prediction markets like Polymarket. Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading contender for the Democratic nomination, supported by Biden’s endorsement.

On Polymarket, Biden’s odds of winning the election plummeted to below 1%, while Harris’s odds increased significantly. Biden’s endorsement, delivered in a follow-up post on X, emphasized the need for Democrats to unite behind Harris to defeat Donald Trump. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats – it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden stated.

The market reaction to Biden’s withdrawal was immediate, with the Biden-linked BODEN token losing nearly half its value. Conversely, the Kamala Horris （KAMA） token doubled in price, reflecting increased market confidence in Harris’s candidacy. The Trump-linked Doland Tremp token also rose by over 20%.

Biden’s decision followed weeks of mounting pressure from within his party, including calls from over a dozen lawmakers for him to step aside. His weak performance in a recent debate further fueled speculation about his ability to lead the Democratic ticket.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the Democratic National Convention will be crucial in solidifying the party’s nominee. Harris’s current standing on Polymarket, with 81% odds, positions her as the frontrunner. However, potential challengers like California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker remain in the mix.

Explanation

• Biden’s withdrawal has significantly altered the prediction market landscape, favoring Kamala Harris.
• Harris’s position as the leading Democratic nominee is bolstered by Biden’s endorsement.
• The market reaction included a drop in Biden-linked tokens and a rise in Harris-linked tokens.
• The Democratic National Convention will play a crucial role in finalizing the party’s nominee.