Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race has led to unprecedented activity on the Polymarket prediction market, pushing daily volumes to record highs.
Points
- Biden’s decision not to seek re-election is unprecedentedly late in the election cycle.
- Polymarket daily volumes hit a record $28 million following Biden’s announcement.
- The number of active accounts on Polymarket has more than doubled in the past month.
- Major political contracts on Polymarket have pooled over $500 million.
- Speculation about Biden’s withdrawal has intensified market activity and betting.
Joe Biden’s unexpected decision not to seek re-election has triggered a surge in betting activity on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market. This decision, made just a month before the Democratic National Convention, is unprecedentedly late, fueling speculation and uncertainty in the political landscape. As a result, Polymarket daily volumes soared to a record $28 million as bettors rushed to position themselves in this unpredictable race.
According to Dune Analytics, this spike in volume represents a significant increase from the average daily volumes of $4 million to $5 million observed after the debate between Biden and Donald Trump. The number of active accounts on Polymarket has more than doubled in the last month, rising to nearly 6,000 from roughly 3,000.
Bettors have pooled well over $500 million on some of the largest political contracts on the platform. The market for the U.S. presidential election winner has $319 million invested, while the contract for the Democratic nominee has over $212 million, with Vice President Kamala Harris being the overwhelming favorite. Additionally, the market to decide Harris’s vice-presidential running mate has accumulated $10 million in bets.
Comparatively, the previous record for political betting was $744 million on Betfair for the 2020 election. With the election still 3 1⁄2 months away, Polymarket could potentially reach $1 billion in betting volume.
One of the more intriguing bets on Polymarket involved cat-themed meme coins, where the Solana-based pop cat （POPCAT） won a contract asking which cat-themed token would hit a $1 billion market value first. This contract, marked by a $630,000 buy that spiked POPCAT’s value, raised questions about market manipulation but remained undisputed.
Additionally, a faulty CrowdStrike software patch that disrupted Windows computers worldwide sparked betting on whether the issue would be resolved by Friday night. The odds favored a quick fix, but the complexities of the problem led to a missed resolution, illustrating the unpredictability and excitement of prediction markets.