Despite Toncoin’s recent 20% price surge, short traders continue to bet against the cryptocurrency. The persistent negative funding rate indicates a bearish sentiment, with large holders reducing their positions, suggesting potential further declines in Toncoin’s value.
Points
- Toncoin has surged nearly 20% in value over the past week, but short traders remain skeptical, maintaining negative positions.
- The negative funding rate for Toncoin indicates that more traders are betting on a price decline.
- Large holders, or “whales,” have reduced their positions, signaling a bearish outlook.
- Toncoin’s price remains below key resistance levels, suggesting a potential continuation of its downtrend.
Toncoin （TON） has experienced a significant price surge, climbing nearly 20% over the past week. However, despite this bullish momentum, short traders have maintained their bearish stance, betting against the cryptocurrency’s continued rise. This is evident from the persistent negative funding rate observed across major cryptocurrency exchanges.
As of this writing, Toncoin’s funding rate stands at -0.028%, a clear indication that short traders are dominating the futures market. The funding rate is a crucial mechanism in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep the contract price aligned with the underlying asset price. A negative funding rate, as seen with Toncoin, suggests that more traders are holding short positions, anticipating a decline in the asset’s value rather than an increase.
This sustained bearish sentiment is not just confined to the futures market. Data from IntoTheBlock reveals that Toncoin’s large holders—often referred to as “whales”—have significantly reduced their holdings over the past month. Specifically, there has been a 250% decline in the netflow of large holders, indicating that these major investors are offloading their Toncoin assets rather than accumulating them.
The decline in large holders’ netflow is a bearish signal that could have broader implications for Toncoin’s market outlook. When whales start reducing their positions, it often leads to increased selling pressure, which can drive the price down further. This behavior is particularly concerning given that large holders typically have a significant influence on the market, and their actions can sway the sentiment of retail investors.
Moreover, Toncoin’s price remains below its Ichimoku Cloud—a key technical indicator used to identify trend direction, momentum, and potential support and resistance levels. The fact that Toncoin is trading below this cloud suggests that it is in a downtrend, with the cloud acting as a significant resistance barrier. If the price fails to break above this level, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially leading to further declines.
Looking ahead, if the bearish sentiment persists, Toncoin’s price could fall to around $5.57, providing a potential profit opportunity for short traders. However, there is also the possibility of a price rally if demand for Toncoin increases. If this occurs, the price could rise to $6.51, which would liquidate some short positions and potentially reverse the bearish trend.
解説
- Bearish Sentiment Despite Price Surge: The ongoing bearish sentiment towards Toncoin, despite its recent price increase, highlights the market’s uncertainty about its long-term prospects. The negative funding rate and decline in large holders’ netflow are key indicators that suggest traders are preparing for a potential decline in Toncoin’s value.
- Role of Large Holders in Market Dynamics: The actions of large holders, or whales, are crucial in determining the market direction for assets like Toncoin. The significant reduction in their positions could signal a broader loss of confidence in the asset, which may influence retail traders to follow suit, further exacerbating the bearish trend.
- Technical Analysis and Future Outlook: Toncoin’s position below the Ichimoku Cloud suggests that it is currently in a downtrend. Traders and investors should closely monitor this indicator, as a failure to break above the cloud could lead to further declines. Conversely, a successful breakout could trigger a short-term rally, providing opportunities for profit on both sides of the market.