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Only 15 Out of 1.7 Million Meme Coins Succeed: Analyzing the Odds on Pump.fun

Aug 15, 2024 #仮想通貨
Only 15 Out of 1.7 Million Meme Coins Succeed: Analyzing the Odds on Pump.fun

Despite the massive revenue generated by Pump.fun, a Solana-based memecoin platform, only a tiny fraction of the millions of meme coins launched have achieved long-term success, highlighting the high-risk nature of the memecoin market.

Points

  • Out of 1.7 million meme coins launched on Pump.fun, only 15 have sustained a market cap over $10 million for multiple weeks.
  • The platform has generated nearly $90 million in revenue, despite the low success rate of the coins.
  • Critics argue that the low success rate makes the platform a risky venture for most investors.
  • Recent policy changes on Pump.fun could lead to an influx of low-quality meme coins, further diluting the market.

Pump.fun, a popular memecoin creation platform built on the Solana blockchain, has become a lucrative venture, generating nearly $90 million in cumulative revenue. However, behind these impressive financial figures lies a stark reality: only a minuscule fraction of the meme coins launched on the platform achieve lasting success.

According to recent data, out of more than 1.7 million meme coins created on Pump.fun, only 15 have managed to maintain a market capitalization exceeding $10 million for multiple weeks. This translates to a success rate of just 0.0001%, highlighting the incredibly high-risk nature of investing in meme coins.

Despite this, the platform has continued to thrive, drawing in users with the promise of quick profits and the thrill of launching or trading meme-based tokens. The financial success of Pump.fun stands in stark contrast to the outcomes experienced by most of its users, leading some critics to liken the platform to a “slaughterhouse” for investors’ hopes.

Further exacerbating the situation, Pump.fun recently eliminated the $2 creation fee for launching new coins, shifting the cost to the first buyer instead. While this change is intended to lower barriers for creators, it has also raised concerns about the potential flood of low-quality tokens, which could make it even harder for legitimate projects to stand out in an already saturated market.

The data also reveals that only 41 of these tokens have managed to sustain a market capitalization exceeding $1 million for multiple weeks, representing a success rate of just 0.002%. Furthermore, only 141 of the tokens launched on Pump.fun have appeared on major data aggregators like CoinGecko, emphasizing the difficulty of gaining visibility and traction in such a competitive environment.

These statistics paint a grim picture of the meme coin market, where the odds of success are extremely low, and the majority of participants are likely to experience losses. Nevertheless, the platform continues to attract a steady stream of users, many driven by the allure of the “next big thing” in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.

解説

  • High-Risk Investment: The extraordinarily low success rate of meme coins on Pump.fun underscores the speculative nature of these investments, where the vast majority of participants are unlikely to see significant returns.
  • Market Saturation: The elimination of the creation fee on Pump.fun could lead to an even more saturated market, making it harder for worthwhile projects to gain the attention needed to succeed.
  • Investor Awareness: Prospective investors should approach the memecoin market with caution, understanding that while the potential for high rewards exists, the risks are overwhelmingly high, and the odds of success are slim.