The Sandbox （SAND） is experiencing challenging times, with its price hovering near critical lows. Despite a recent slight increase, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest that SAND could face further declines, potentially reaching bear market floor levels.
Points
- SAND’s price has risen slightly but remains under significant bearish pressure.
- 98% of SAND holders are currently in losses, raising concerns about further price drops.
- On-chain metrics indicate that SAND might be heading toward its bear market floor.
- Negative Market Value to Realized Value （MVRV） and weak bullish momentum point to potential further declines.
- If the bearish trend continues, SAND could revisit its lowest levels since the 2022 bear market.
The Sandbox （SAND）, a prominent player in the metaverse and gaming token space, is facing turbulent times as its price struggles to gain upward momentum. Recently, SAND climbed to $0.27 during early trading, offering a glimmer of hope for investors. However, with 98% of SAND holders currently in losses, concerns are mounting about the token’s ability to sustain any meaningful recovery.
Year-to-date, SAND’s price has dropped by 56.22%, and if this bearish trend persists, the token could approach its lowest levels witnessed during the 2022 bear market. Despite a 6% rise over the last seven days, on-chain data reveals a troubling picture. The Market Value to Realized Value （MVRV） Long/Short Difference, a key metric for gauging market profitability, stands at -35.56%. This negative value suggests that short-term holders would realize more profits than long-term holders if they sold at the current price, indicating that the token may be heading deeper into bearish territory.
Historically, when the MVRV Long/Short Difference metric has hovered between -40.74% and -75.26%, SAND has entered bear market phases. If SAND fails to make a notable jump from its current levels, profitability will likely decrease further, pushing the token closer to the bear market floor.
Another critical indicator, the Bulls and Bears Indicator, further supports this bearish outlook. This tool tracks the activity of the top 1% of trading volume participants, differentiating between bulls （those buying） and bears （those selling）. Over the past seven days, SAND has seen 28 more bears than bulls, signaling that most traders currently lack confidence in the token’s short-term prospects.
Technical analysis of SAND’s price movements also aligns with these on-chain signals. The Balance of Power （BoP） indicator, which evaluates the strength of buyers versus sellers, has dropped to -0.64, indicating that sellers currently dominate the market. If selling pressure continues to build, SAND’s recent upswing may be short-lived, leading to further declines.
Moreover, Fibonacci retracement levels provide insight into potential future price points for SAND. If the current selling pressure persists, SAND could drop to $0.20, a level last seen during the 2022 bear market. On the other hand, with strong bullish action, the token might attempt to retest the $0.30 level. However, the prevailing market conditions suggest that a bearish continuation is more likely in the near term.
解説
- MVRV Indicator: The negative Market Value to Realized Value （MVRV） Long/Short Difference indicates that short-term holders are in a more favorable position than long-term holders, suggesting increased bearish sentiment and potential further declines.
- Bulls and Bears Indicator: The higher number of bears compared to bulls reflects the lack of confidence among traders, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward pressure on SAND.
- Technical Analysis: The Balance of Power （BoP） indicator and Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that SAND is more likely to experience further declines unless significant buying pressure emerges.
- Bear Market Risks: The overall bearish outlook, combined with weak on-chain metrics, indicates that SAND may revisit its bear market floor, especially if the broader crypto market remains under pressure.