Points
- Avalanche （AVAX） price drops 10% in the last seven days.
- Traders increase bearish positions, indicated by a negative funding rate.
- On-chain analysis shows aggressive seller behavior and reduced demand.
- Key support and resistance levels are crucial for AVAX’s future price movements.
Avalanche （AVAX） has experienced a sharp 10% decline in price over the past seven days, dropping from $29.55 to $26.19. This decline mirrors a wider sell-off amid market uncertainty. As a result, traders have shifted their positions, increasingly betting against AVAX.
On-chain analysis by Santiment indicates a significant change in sentiment. Avalanche’s funding rate has turned negative, currently sitting at -0.017%. This rate, which represents the cost of holding an open perpetual contract, shows that most positions in the market are shorts, suggesting a bearish outlook. Negative funding indicates that traders with short positions are paying a fee to those with long positions, reflecting broader market pessimism.
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Additionally, the Avalanche Addresses by Time Held indicator provides insights into holder behavior. This metric shows that only those who have held AVAX for over 365 days have refrained from selling. In contrast, holders who accumulated AVAX between the last 30 days and the last 12 months have been liquidating their positions, indicating skepticism about its short-term potential.
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AVAX Price Prediction: Potential Drop to $25?
The daily AVAX/USD chart shows that the token could close the month on a bearish note. The decline appears to be part of a rounding top pattern, which typically signals a bearish trend. This pattern emerged between July 17 and 27, where AVAX’s price peaked and then began to decline.
The Relative Strength Index （RSI） also supports this bearish sentiment. The RSI, a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, is still in bearish territory. Readings below 50.00 indicate that bearish momentum dominates, which is currently the case for AVAX.
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If AVAX fails to find support at its current levels, it could drop to $25.54. However, if the RSI falls below 30.00, AVAX may become oversold, which could trigger a rebound and an attempt to retest $27.75.
解説
- The recent 10% price drop and negative funding rate highlight the bearish sentiment surrounding Avalanche （AVAX）, driven by broader market uncertainty.
- Key technical indicators, such as the funding rate and RSI, provide insights into trader behavior and market sentiment, suggesting increased short positions and bearish momentum.
- Monitoring support and resistance levels is crucial for predicting AVAX’s future price movements and potential recovery.
- The rounding top pattern and bearish RSI readings indicate that AVAX may continue to face downward pressure, with potential support around $25.54.
- Understanding on-chain metrics and holder behavior is essential for making informed trading decisions and anticipating market trends for Avalanche.