Analyzing on-chain data to understand Bitcoin’s latest trends and potential price movements. This article explores key indicators suggesting that Bitcoin might be nearing a bottom and poised for a rebound.
Points
- Increase in realized losses on-chain suggesting a potential rally.
- Historical data indicating Bitcoin is not currently in a bear phase.
- Short Term Holder SOPR analysis.
- Implications of losses on Bitcoin price.
- Bear phase analysis using cycle detector.
Bitcoin’s potential bottom could be close if the current cycle remains in a bull phase. This insight is derived from the Short Term Holder （STH） SOPR, a metric that provides an understanding of the realized profits of all coins traded on-chain, with a focus on the short term.
Implications of Losses on Bitcoin Price
A STH-SOPR greater than 1 implies that the selling price of BTC exceeds the buying price, indicating high volumes of realized on-chain profits. Conversely, when the metric falls below 1, it suggests that selling prices are higher than purchase prices, indicating realized losses on-chain. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s STH-SOPR has dipped to 0.98.
Historically, this implies that Bitcoin has either hit its bottom or is nearing it. Similar trends were observed in September 2023, 2021, and 2018. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin’s price could increase by 34.99% in less than two months.
Bear Phase Not Yet in Sight
Despite the recent drop to $54,274, claims of a return to the bear market are not substantiated. This is confirmed using Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Change Detector, which identifies transitions between bull and bear markets. Unless nearly 100% of the total Bitcoin in circulation hits profits, a transition to a bear cycle is unlikely. Therefore, Bitcoin might reach a value between $76,000 and $80,000 before the quarter ends. However, this prediction could be invalidated if the market experiences significant selling pressure.
Conclusion
Analyzing on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin might be nearing its bottom, with several indicators pointing towards a potential rebound. While historical trends and metrics like the STH-SOPR and cycle detector provide valuable insights, investors should remain cautious and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.
解説
- STH-SOPR Analysis: Indicates realized profits and losses, suggesting a potential bottom for Bitcoin.
- Historical Trends: Similar patterns observed in previous years indicate potential price increases.
- Bear Phase Analysis: Current data does not support a return to the bear market.
- Market Predictions: Potential for Bitcoin to reach $76,000 to $80,000, contingent on market conditions.
- Investor Caution: On-chain data provides valuable insights but should be considered alongside other factors.