As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Polymarket data reveals Donald Trump leading in the race for the White House, while Kamala Harris is favored to win the popular vote.
Points
- Polymarket data shows Donald Trump leading in the 2024 presidential race.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, prediction markets are buzzing with bets and speculations. Polymarket data reveals some intriguing insights into the likely outcomes of the race for the White House.
Presidential Election Winner: Trump in the Lead: According to Polymarket, Donald Trump is currently the frontrunner in the presidential race. This data shows a significant lead over other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent. Market bets indicate that other candidates hold less than a 1% chance of winning the November ballot, underscoring Trump’s dominant position.
Popular Vote: Harris Expected to Come Out on Top: In contrast to the presidential race, Kamala Harris is currently favored to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket users. More than $2.7 million in bets support Harris, with 62% of punters backing her to win the popular vote. This indicates a potential divergence between the electoral and popular vote outcomes, a scenario reminiscent of previous elections in U.S. history.
Balance of Power: Slight Edge to Republicans: The broader question of which party will control the government post-election shows a narrow edge for a Republican sweep. Polymarket’s “Balance of Power: 2024 Election” market, which has seen almost $3.7 million in total bets, indicates a 34% chance of a Republican sweep, supported by just over $570,000 in bets. Meanwhile, a Democrat sweep holds a 22% chance, with more than $328,000 in bets.
Nuanced scenarios, such as a Republican president with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House, stand at 23%, while a Democratic president with a Republican Senate and Democratic House sits at 18%.
Biden’s Exit Shakes Up Race: Biden’s withdrawal from the race has significantly impacted the dynamics of the 2024 election. Some feel that Harris’s potential rethink on crypto could make her a more palatable candidate for the industry than Biden, hence the narrowing margins between herself and Trump among Polymarket bettors. Harris has opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Trump, leading 44% to 42%. The two were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by 1% in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
Explanation
- Polymarket data shows Donald Trump leading in the 2024 presidential race, with other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., trailing significantly.
- Kamala Harris is favored to win the popular vote, indicating a potential split between the electoral and popular vote outcomes.
- The balance of power market shows a slight edge for Republicans, with a narrow chance of a Republican sweep.
- Biden’s exit from the race has impacted the election dynamics, with Harris gaining marginally over Trump in recent polls.
- These insights highlight the dynamic nature of the election and the potential influence of the crypto community on the outcomes.