QCP Capital analysts note that derivatives traders are taking significant long positions in bitcoin options with high strike prices, anticipating a potential upswing in bitcoin value ahead of the US elections.
Points
- Significant long positions in bitcoin options with a $67,000 strike price.
- Anticipation of a bitcoin breakout leading into the US elections.
- Indicators of sizable institutional interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls.
- Analysts believe a Trump victory would benefit bitcoin.
- Bitcoin currently trading flat at around $64,059.
QCP Capital analysts have observed that derivatives traders are taking significant long positions in bitcoin options with a strike price of $67,000 ahead of the upcoming end-of-month expiry on July 26. The analysts noted that dealers are heavily invested in the Friday 26 end-of-July $67,000 strike, indicating a strong belief in a bitcoin breakout leading into the US elections.
Further supporting this bullish sentiment, there are signs of sizable institutional interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls. This suggests a strong conviction among traders of a year-end rally, particularly if the odds of a Trump victory increase. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank also consider Donald Trump to be “bitcoin-positive,” noting that both regulation and mining would be looked at more favorably under his administration.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, highlighted a positive correlation between Trump’s electoral odds and the price of bitcoin. He emphasized that if Trump wins, regulation and mining would likely be more favorable, boosting bitcoin’s value. Even if Joe Biden remains in the race, Kendrick believes that bitcoin remains a fantastic buying opportunity, sticking with his year-end price prediction of $150,000 and end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 for bitcoin.
Currently, bitcoin is trading flat over the past 24 hours at around $64,059. The analysts’ observations and predictions indicate that traders are positioning themselves for potential significant price movements in the coming months.
解説
- The strong interest in bitcoin options with high strike prices reflects traders’ anticipation of significant price movements leading into the US elections.
- Institutional interest in long-term bitcoin calls suggests confidence in the asset’s potential for substantial gains, especially under a favorable regulatory environment.
- The correlation between political outcomes and bitcoin’s price highlights the influence of regulatory and policy decisions on cryptocurrency markets.
- Investors should consider the potential impact of the US elections on bitcoin and position themselves accordingly, keeping an eye on key dates and political developments.