Option Traders Bet on Bitcoin Upswing Ahead of US Elections, Says QCP Capital

QCP Capital reports a surge in long positions on bitcoin options as traders anticipate a price increase ahead of the US elections, with a specific interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls.

Points

• Traders have taken significant long positions in bitcoin options at a $67,000 strike price.
• Indicators of strong institutional interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls.
• Analysts predict a bitcoin rally with a potential Trump victory.
• Positive correlation between Trump’s electoral odds and bitcoin prices.
• Bitcoin trading at $64,059 at the time of writing.

As the US elections draw nearer, QCP Capital analysts have observed a notable trend among derivatives traders: a significant number of long positions on bitcoin options with a strike price of $67,000. This trend points to a collective bet on a substantial bitcoin price upswing by the end of July.

Analysts at QCP Capital have indicated that the derivatives market is heavily betting on a bitcoin breakout as the US elections approach. Furthermore, there are indicators in the bitcoin options market that show substantial institutional interest in December 2024 $100,000 calls, signaling a strong conviction in a year-end rally, especially with increasing odds of a Trump victory.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, supports this view. In an early July analyst note, Kendrick emphasized a positive correlation between Donald Trump’s electoral prospects and the price of bitcoin. He noted that a Trump presidency would likely result in more favorable regulation and mining conditions for bitcoin, whereas a Biden presidency would present a “fantastic buying opportunity.” Kendrick has maintained his year-end price prediction of $150,000 for bitcoin and an end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $64,059, as per The Block’s Price Page.

解説

• Bitcoin options with a strike price of $67,000 have seen significant interest as traders anticipate a price increase.
• Institutional interest in $100,000 calls for December 2024 suggests confidence in a year-end rally.
• Analysts link a potential Trump victory to a positive impact on bitcoin prices, citing more favorable regulatory conditions.
• Bitcoin’s current trading price is $64,059.
• Geoffrey Kendrick predicts bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.