Points
- Rising geopolitical tensions and the AI sector’s underperformance are driving investors toward safer assets like gold, which is currently outperforming Bitcoin.
- Gold has risen to near all-time highs, while Bitcoin has seen a 4% decline, reflecting investor caution.
- The performance of Bitcoin compared to gold raises questions about its effectiveness as a hedge in times of market uncertainty.
- Despite Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value, its correlation with tech stocks remains high, affecting its performance during periods of volatility.
In recent weeks, the dynamics between gold and Bitcoin have shifted, with gold emerging as the preferred safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions and the underperformance of the AI sector. As major AI-related tech stocks like Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft have faced significant downturns, investors are increasingly seeking refuge in more stable assets. Gold, often considered a traditional store of value during times of economic and political uncertainty, has seen its price rise by 0.6% to $2,468 per ounce in the past 24 hours. This increase brings gold close to its all-time high of $2,483.68, achieved in July 2024.
Conversely, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its value, experiencing a 4% drop over the same period. Currently trading around $58,468, Bitcoin remains approximately 23% below its all-time high of nearly $73,000. This contrast in performance between gold and Bitcoin highlights a growing concern among investors: the reliability of Bitcoin as a hedge during periods of market volatility. While Bitcoin has often been compared to gold due to its limited supply and potential as a store of value, recent trends suggest that investors still see gold as the more secure option when faced with uncertainty.
Jasper De Maere, Head of Research at Outlier Ventures, noted that during last week’s market selloff, gold managed to decouple from broader market indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, maintaining its value despite the turmoil. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has not fared as well. De Maere pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance is still closely tied to the tech sector, particularly to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and altcoins, with which it shares a correlation exceeding 0.95 over the past 30 days. This high correlation indicates that Bitcoin continues to trade more like a tech stock than a true store of value like gold.
Several factors contribute to Bitcoin’s challenges in establishing itself as a mainstream hedge against market volatility. One significant issue is the lack of regulatory clarity surrounding cryptocurrencies, which has kept many institutional investors wary of fully embracing Bitcoin. Additionally, the relatively nascent state of the crypto market means that it is still subject to higher volatility compared to traditional assets like gold.
However, De Maere remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential. He believes that as the cryptocurrency market matures and as Bitcoin’s underlying technology continues to evolve, it could eventually become a more reliable hedge, similar to gold. The ongoing development of Bitcoin’s layer-one technology, along with innovations in decentralized finance （DeFi） and institutional adoption, could help Bitcoin decouple from tech stocks and establish its own identity as a safe-haven asset.
The recent market turmoil also underscores the broader economic factors influencing investor behavior. Rising inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risks are prompting investors to seek assets that offer stability and protection against financial uncertainty. While gold currently fulfills this role, Bitcoin’s proponents argue that it could eventually take on a similar function, especially as global economic conditions continue to evolve.
解説
- Gold vs. Bitcoin as Safe Havens: The contrasting performance of gold and Bitcoin during recent market volatility highlights the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset. While gold has long been considered a reliable store of value during times of crisis, Bitcoin is still struggling to establish itself in this role due to its high correlation with tech stocks and the overall cryptocurrency market.
- Regulatory Challenges for Bitcoin: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks around cryptocurrencies continues to pose a challenge for Bitcoin’s adoption as a mainstream hedge. Until these issues are addressed, institutional investors may remain hesitant to fully integrate Bitcoin into their portfolios as a protective asset.
- Bitcoin’s Long-Term Potential: Despite the current challenges, there is optimism about Bitcoin’s future as a hedge against market uncertainty. As the crypto market matures and Bitcoin’s technology evolves, it may eventually decouple from tech stocks and gain recognition as a reliable store of value, similar to gold.
- Economic Factors Driving Gold’s Popularity: The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to a combination of rising geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and concerns about currency devaluation. These factors are driving investors toward gold, which is traditionally seen as a stable asset during periods of economic instability.