Points
- A “death cross” has formed on Bitcoin’s chart, signaling potential further downside in the cryptocurrency market.
- The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, a bearish indicator that could trigger a new wave of sell-offs.
- Despite a brief rebound, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to more significant price corrections.
- Market volatility and decreasing open interest are contributing to investor caution.
Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is showing signs of potential further downside as a “death cross” has appeared on its charts. This bearish technical pattern occurs when the 50-day moving average （MA） crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that short-term price weakness is outpacing long-term momentum. Historically, the formation of a death cross has often preceded significant price declines, making it a key indicator for traders and investors.
The recent appearance of the death cross on Bitcoin’s chart comes at a time of
renewed market uncertainty. Despite a brief rebound following last week’s sell-off, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, with its price hovering around $58,436 at the time of writing. This decline is particularly concerning given that Bitcoin is down approximately 3% over the past 24 hours, according to data from The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.
Sergei Gorev, a risk manager at YouHodler, noted that while Bitcoin’s charts may suggest a potential rebound, the death cross indicates that further downside is possible. “Two fairly popular moving averages, the 50-day and 200-day, have drawn the so-called ‘death cross,’ which does not add optimism to the crypto market in the medium term,” Gorev explained. This pattern often signals that a new wave of sell-offs could be on the horizon, particularly if other technical indicators align with this bearish sentiment.
Adding to the market’s unease is the declining open interest in Bitcoin futures, which has been falling more sharply than the price itself. Open interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures and options, that have not been settled. A decrease in open interest suggests that traders are closing their positions, often in response to heightened volatility or uncertainty about future price movements. This lack of confidence is further reflected in the lower trading volumes observed over the past weekend, indicating that the recent sell-off was not driven by strong bearish action, but rather by a general lack of enthusiasm among market participants.
Looking ahead, the market is likely to remain volatile through August and September, with Bitcoin potentially trading within a broad range of $49,000 to $69,000. Analyst Valentin Fournier from BRN noted that Bitcoin has more room to expand before heading back to a lower range. He suggested that investors might consider using the current dip as an opportunity to increase their exposure to Bitcoin gradually.
Despite the current bearish signals, there is still a chance that Bitcoin could stage a recovery, particularly if macroeconomic conditions turn more favorable. For instance, any shifts in U.S. monetary policy or unexpected geopolitical developments could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index （CPI） readings, for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A cooler-than-expected CPI reading could increase the Fed’s confidence in initiating a rate-cut cycle, potentially providing a boost to risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, until more clarity emerges, the presence of the death cross and the overall market sentiment suggest that caution is warranted. Investors should be prepared for continued volatility and the possibility of further downside, especially as Bitcoin remains under pressure from broader market forces.
解説
- Death Cross as a Bearish Indicator: The formation of a death cross on Bitcoin’s chart is a significant bearish signal that has historically been associated with further price declines. This pattern, which occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, suggests that short-term momentum is weakening relative to long-term trends.
- Market Volatility and Investor Caution: The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and declining open interest in Bitcoin futures. This combination reflects a lack of confidence among traders, who are closing positions and reducing exposure to risk. The recent decline in trading volumes further underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market.
- Potential for Further Downside: While there is still a possibility that Bitcoin could recover, particularly if macroeconomic conditions improve, the overall technical outlook remains bearish. Investors should be prepared for the potential of further downside, especially if the death cross is followed by additional bearish signals.
- Impact of Macroeconomic Factors: Upcoming economic data, such as the U.S. CPI readings, will be critical in shaping market sentiment. Any indication that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates could provide support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, until such developments materialize, the market is likely to remain on edge.